{"id":85811,"date":"2026-01-30T11:28:34","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T15:28:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/antilla-martinique.com\/?p=85811"},"modified":"2026-01-30T11:28:34","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T15:28:34","slug":"la-croissance-economique-des-caraibes-devrait-ralentir-en-2025-et-2026-selon-les-previsions-de-la-cepalc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/antilla-martinique.com\/en\/la-croissance-economique-des-caraibes-devrait-ralentir-en-2025-et-2026-selon-les-previsions-de-la-cepalc\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic growth in the Caribbean is expected to slow in 2025 and 2026, according to ECLAC forecasts."},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has published a new edition of its annual report, \u00ab<\/span><\/span>\u00a0\u00bbEconomic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025: Mobilizing Resources to Finance Development\"<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/a> , in which she warns that the region continues to experience a prolonged period of slow growth. It is estimated that the gross domestic product (GDP<\/span><\/span>will grow by an average of 2.2 % in 2025 and 2.3 % in 2026, in line with the rates recorded in 2023 and 2024 (see attached table).<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The new projections for 2025 represent a slight upward revision compared with those published by the organization in April (2.0 %), which is attributable to improved GDP performance in the first quarter of the year.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The report\u2014released at a press conference led by Jos\u00e9 Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Regional Commission\u2014highlights that the estimates reveal different trends among subregions and countries.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In the Caribbean (excluding Guyana), growth is estimated at 1.8 % in 2025 and 1.7 % in 2026, representing a slowdown compared to 2024. This slowdown is attributable to weak GDP growth in the United States and the resulting decline in demand for tourism services, as well as a decrease in global demand for services. The subregion continues to face high costs for energy imports and transportation, as well as significant vulnerability to natural disasters\u2014factors that affect its external position and debt levels. In contrast, French Guiana is expected to maintain high growth rates thanks to continued investment in the hydrocarbons sector.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In South America, growth of 2.7 % is projected for 2025, above the regional average, driven in particular by the recovery in Argentina and Ecuador, the growth momentum in Colombia, and Paraguay\u2019s robust expansion. However, in the rest of the subregion\u2019s countries, a slowdown compared to 2024 levels is expected. In 2026, South American growth is projected to stabilize again at 2.4 %.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In Central America and Mexico, projected growth for 2025 is 1.0 %, nearly half the 1.8 % growth recorded in 2024, due to weakening external demand, particularly from the United States. Countries such as Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic will, however, post stronger growth, with rates exceeding 3.5 %, thanks to the strength of the services sector, private consumption, and remittances. Overall, a modest recovery to 1.7 % growth is expected in 2026, although the subregion will remain highly vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural dependence on the U.S. economy in terms of trade, finance, and migration. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025\u20132026 will be characterized by weaker overall domestic demand. The regional macroeconomic environment will be characterized by weak domestic demand, due in particular to a slowdown in private consumption. Furthermore, the global outlook remains unfavorable, thereby limiting external drivers of regional growth.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2025 and 2026, global economic growth is expected to slow due to a variety of factors, including geoeconomic tensions and fragmentation, tighter financial conditions, a decline in international trade, and armed conflicts. This situation is exacerbated by increased external vulnerability, which is reflected in a projected wider current account deficit and greater dependence on foreign capital. The report indicates that, during the 2025\u20132026 period, the region\u2019s balance of payments will remain exposed to various risks, such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, volatility in commodity prices, and a synchronized slowdown in the world\u2019s major economies.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Employment growth is also expected to slow. In line with economic trends, ECLAC forecasts that employment growth will remain weak in the region\u2019s economies in 2025 and 2026. The increase in the number of people employed is expected to be lower than in previous years. Under this scenario, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at around 5.6 %. Although a slight reduction in the informal sector and in productivity gaps between men and women is expected, these indicators will remain at high levels. Projections for 2025 and 2026 indicate stable regional inflation, although risks of upward inflationary pressures are expected to persist.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In summary, the report warns of the high level of uncertainty surrounding the global and regional outlook for 2025 and 2026. Growth momentum in the region\u2019s economies could deteriorate due to mounting global risks.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Mobilizing Resources to Finance Development\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/h2>\n

In light of these complex prospects, ECLAC emphasizes the urgent need for the region to \u00abmobilize more resources in order to overcome the traps of low growth, high inequality, limited social mobility, and persistent structural disparities in development.\u00bb In the medium term, Latin America and the Caribbean will face the challenge of maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing their productive transformation amid an increasingly unstable international environment. \u201cTo meet this challenge, it is essential to define a long-term strategic vision that supports sustainable and inclusive development, accompanied by short-term macroeconomic policies designed to mitigate risks and reduce exposure to external shocks,\u201d the organization\u2019s Executive Secretary stated in his presentation.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The\u2019 <\/span><\/span>2025 Economic Study<\/span><\/span><\/em> addresses three key dimensions for strengthening development financing capacity in the region, building on three strategic pillars.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The first pillar focuses on mobilizing domestic resources<\/span><\/span> . The report identifies the fiscal and structural challenges that limit this mobilization in the region. It proposes improving the quality of spending, increasing public investment, and strengthening tax collection by reducing fraud and streamlining tax expenditures, while moving toward a more progressive tax system.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The second pillar focuses on mobilizing external and private resources<\/span><\/span> . In this regard, the document emphasizes the need to reform the international financial architecture in accordance with the Seville Commitment, to redefine the eligibility criteria for Official Development Assistance (ODA), and to strengthen sovereign debt resolution mechanisms. It further proposes increasing private investment by developing capital markets at the national level and encouraging the use of instruments such as thematic bonds, debt swaps, and blended finance.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The third pillar emphasizes the importance of strengthening the role of development banks in mobilizing resources<\/span><\/span> . The report highlights the strategic role these banks play in channeling funding to key sectors. To accelerate progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, development finance institutions must drive large-scale projects through innovative mechanisms that combine public and private investments. The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration among development finance institutions to increase their lending capacity and scope of action.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The Seville Commitment\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0 <\/span><\/span>Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development<\/span><\/span><\/a> , held recently in Seville, Spain, reaffirmed the global commitment to sustainable development and increased financing. In its new report, ECLAC urges countries in the region to seize this opportunity to accelerate the mobilization of financial resources, strengthen economic stability, and move toward more productive, inclusive, sustainable, and resilient development.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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