UKRAINIANS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THEIR VICTORY, ACCORDING TO A NEW POLL BY LORD ASHCROFT
A NEW POLL BY LORD ASHCROFT – LONDON, February 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Ukrainians are increasingly confident in their ability to defeat the Russian invasion and expect a military victory rather than a diplomatic solution, according to a new Lord Ashcroft poll. Meanwhile, support among Russians for the ’special military operation« remains high (76 %). 85 % of them say they have a favorable opinion of President Putin. While 41 % of Britons say the United Kingdom has a direct interest in thwarting the invasion of Ukraine, only 33 % of Americans say the same about the United States.
Surveys were conducted among more than 2,000 people in Ukraine, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The findings include the following:
- Nearly 7 out of 10 Ukrainians (69 %) said they are more confident in their ability to defeat the Russian invasion than they were at the start of the conflict. Only 39 % of Russians said they were more confident about victory than they were at the start of the ’special military operation.«.
- 57 % of Russians said they believed the ’special military operation« was proceeding successfully. 85 % of Ukrainians said they believed Ukraine’s defense was making progress. Six out of 10 Russians said that Ukraine appears to be putting up stronger resistance to Russian forces than they would have expected.
- When asked whether they thought various countries and organizations were doing enough to help Ukraine, Ukrainians were more likely to answer «Yes» for the United Kingdom (74 %), ahead of the United States (71 %) and the EU (61 %). Fewer than half of them said that Germany, France, and NATO were doing enough, although that number has increased significantly since our last survey in June 2022.
- When asked what they expected most from their allies, Ukrainians cited, first and foremost: more weapons and military equipment (87 %), NATO membership (50 %), and a no-fly zone enforced by allied air forces (42 %). Fewer than 3 in 10 said that stricter economic sanctions, humanitarian aid, or diplomatic efforts were the top priorities. However, the British and Americans are the most willing to provide humanitarian aid and diplomatic support.
- Support is higher in Great Britain than in the United States regarding the supply of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine (65 % versus 55 %), weapons and ammunition (68 % versus 58 %), humanitarian aid (84 % versus 77 %), financial support (64 % vs. 51 %), and for imposing stricter economic sanctions (67 % vs. 57 %). Support for supplying fighter jets to the Ukrainian military is similar in both countries (49 % and 48 %).
- 86 % of Ukrainians want their country to join NATO. A majority of Britons and Americans (60 % and 55 %) agree that Ukraine should be allowed to join. Two-thirds of Ukrainians (66 %) say they would feel safer if they had nuclear weapons.
- Russians (64 %) are more likely than Ukrainians (56 %) to believe that the war will last at least another 6 months. 42 % of Russians believe it will continue for more than a year, compared with 1 in 3 Ukrainians. Ukrainians (66 %) are significantly more likely than Russians (45 %) to believe that the war will end with a military victory for one side, rather than through a diplomatic solution.
- Three-quarters (76 %) of Russians said they supported the ’special military operation« in Ukraine, the same proportion as in June 2022. Support ranges from 60 % among 18- to 24-year-olds to 86 % among those aged 65 and older. Only a minority of Russians (39 %) said they believed the »special military operation’ had significantly damaged Russia’s reputation.
- Nearly two-thirds (65 %) of Russians said they expected a new round of mandatory military service to support the ’special military operation.« However, only 56 % of Russians say they support a new round of military service, and a majority of young Russians (62 % of those aged 18–24 and 51 % of those aged 25–34) oppose it.
- Britons are more likely than Americans to say they have a direct interest in thwarting the Russian invasion of Ukraine (41 % versus 33 %) or that supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do even if there is no direct interest at stake (27 % versus 23 %). Americans were twice as likely to say they should not intervene because the conflict did not concern them (5 % in Britain, 10 % in the United States), or that supporting Ukraine harmed their economy and made their country a target (7 % in the United Kingdom, 14 % in the United States).
2,019 Ukrainian adults were surveyed by telephone between February 7 and 13, 2023. 2,012 Russian adults were surveyed by telephone between February 3 and 13, 2023. 2,082 British adults were surveyed online between February 13 and 14, 2023. 2,204 U.S. adults were surveyed online between February 10 and 14, 2023. The full results of the study are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com.
LORD ASHCROFT, KCMG, PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster, and author. He has served as vice president of the Conservative Party and honorary president of the International Democratic Union. His recent political works include *Going For Broke: The Rise of Rishi Sunak*, *First Lady: Intrigue at the Court of Carrie and Boris Johnson*, and *Red Knight: The Unauthorized Biography of Sir Keir Starmer*.
LordAshcroftPolls.com // LordAshcroft.com // Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft
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SOURCE: Lord Ashcroft Polls
